Stories that say that one thing hasn’t occurred are at all times fascinating to me, as a result of as we all know, there are “recognized knowns”; there are issues we all know we all know. We additionally know there are “recognized unknowns”; that’s to say we all know there are some issues we have no idea. However there are additionally “unknown unknowns” — those we don’t know we don’t know.
— Donald Rumsfeld, U.S. Secretary of Protection,
Protection Division Briefing on February 12, 2002
I’ve drawn a diagram of this constellation beneath. I like drawing diagrams as a result of they usually level out issues we miss. Issues we miss could cause all types of hassle. On this case what was lacking from Rumsfeld’s assertion (and pondering?) have been “unknown knowns”. These are that which we don’t know however which we might know, as a result of different folks know them. “Unknown knowns” are additionally referred to as ignorance and are sometimes a consequence of certitude or religion.
Your complete quad appears to be like like this
The vertical axis offers along with your data (or your group’s data) vs different folks’s data. This axis ought to be straightforward to get a deal with on besides in these instances when somebody thinks he is aware of roughly than he really does which might trigger some confusion as to the place the true zero lies. On the prime, we’ve got the issues that you recognize. On the backside, we’ve got the issues that you simply have no idea however different folks (may) know. The horizontal offers with the world or actuality. Some issues are recognized about actuality reminiscent of the present climate, the previous historical past of inventory costs, the regulation of gravity, and so forth. Some issues about actuality are unknown reminiscent of future rates of interest, future authorities insurance policies, future know-how, and so forth.All people has a private diagram. For example, your data could also be my ignorance; what can be a shock to me could also be a prediction to you resulting from your larger grasp of both private data or data about actuality. The larger your private data is, the much less ignorant you’ll be however extra importantly, the extra predictions it is possible for you to to make and the less surprises you’ll expertise.
One significantly profound supply of private ignorance and surprises is specialization. Specialization drives an individual into the higher proper nook the place he is aware of every part there’s to learn about nothing. Folks could also be stunned to be taught this however regardless of usually being requested their opinion on present occasions actors usually don’t know a lot about politics whereasthey do know quite a bit about appearing . The identical goes for different vocations. A extra severe instance is likely to be that of the scholar. Students or researchers are vocationally rewarded for his or her productiveness as measured by the variety of publications in prestigious journals. Whereas there’s plenty of deal with work-life stability and entertaining different hobbies, those that focus 100% of their power on their specialization finally will get the promotion. This has result in plenty of ultra-focused intellectuals every driving a specialised understanding of a slender fraction of the world however few tying all of it collectively.The result’s specialists which have a tough time speaking to the broader public and even to one another. There aren’t any singly organizing people which are able to studying every part there’s to know anymore. For example, there was philosophers. Philosophers would take into consideration the world. Philosophers then cut up into pure philosophers and “different”. The pure philosophers later grew to become mathematicians, physicists, chemists, astronomers, geologists, biologists, … and never so lengthy after that these cut up up as properly. Thus right this moment it is rather laborious to position data into context.
Subsequently placing issues in context will not be completed by people. Quite it’s completed by procedures or delegation by a system. Now the issue is that specialization has brought about an perspective the place it’s implicitly assumed that there’s at all times a “they” that may clear up any downside. International warming? “They” will consider one thing! Flu epidemics? “They” will consider one thing! Operating out of oil? “They” will consider one thing!
The issue is that there isn’t a “they” in command of the world. “They” might be able to repair remoted issues like a fuel chromatographic evaluation of ear wax, however “they” aren’t capable of repair systemic downside. Programs have inertia. Plenty of inertia. Did you ever surprise why English as taught in colleges focuses the analyses of texts usually perpetrated by loopy folks, you recognize, writers, fairly grammar or writing copy or journalistic articles or just letters? College students are primarily imitating English professors, who’re imitating medieval monasteries, who’re imitating historical Greek philosophers (read more here). Structure is one other instance. Why do large establishments have Doric columns imitating stone facades of Greek temples which once more imitate wooden pillars of easier huts? Why do universities nonetheless have seminars relationship from a time when communication was so sluggish and costly that college students couldn’t afford their very own textbooks? It’s systemic inertia and the explanation for the systemic inertia is that there isn’t a “they” in command of operations.
This turns into an enormous downside in the case of future planning. For example, monetary planning is generally primarily based on historic returns regardless that everybody warns us that previous outcomes aren’t any assure of future returns. The query we should ask ourself will not be what the recognized unknowns are e.g. whether or not future returns of the inventory market indices are 4%, 8% or 12%, however fairly what are the unknown unknowns? Will democracy nonetheless exist in 30 years? Will the greenback be value something? Will barter fairly than financial change be the main target? Will everyone be entrepreneurs fairly than staff? Will world warfare III happen? Will folks be anticipated to develop their very own meals or will meals be offered within the type of soylent inexperienced by pipeline? Few retirement plans within the type of 401(ok)s, IRAs, SEPs, and so forth. make provisions for this, as a result of monetary planners are, sadly, specialists in monetary planning.
There are two methods to pursue right here. The snug one is to comply with the group and do what everyone else does. That is protected within the psychic sense. Observe as an example, that since very many individuals have been silly and speculated in everlasting progress of actual property costs they did get a bailout. People don’t fare this properly as a result of democracy cares much less about people. Nevertheless, people are nimbler and extra agile than crowds, so this makes for another technique which is the one I choose. However this technique will not be all about accumulating one million {dollars}. It’s also concerning the scenario the place cash doesn’t purchase you something.
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Initially posted 2008-03-17 07:12:24.